Modelling procedure while assessing the impact of news articles on cryptocurrency (Bitcoin) market movement

O, Maku T; Adenomon, Monday Osagie; Adehi, Mary U

doi:10.22059/jcss.2025.393177.1139

Modelling procedure while assessing the impact of news articles on cryptocurrency (Bitcoin) market movement

Document Type : Original article

Authors

Maku T O ¹

Monday Osagie Adenomon ²

Mary U Adehi ²

¹ Department of Statistics, Federal University, Otuoke, Nigeria

² Department of Statistics, Nasarawa State University, Kefi, Nigeria.

10.22059/jcss.2025.393177.1139

Abstract

Background: Cryptocurrencies have a variety of unique qualities, from cutting-edge technology to highly secure architecture. Additionally, the ability to invest in cryptocurrency, as an asset or a function of its prosperity has made crypto-currencies attractive to venture capitalists, computer scientists, and statisticians.
Aims: In this study, we concentrated on a collection of documents web-scrapped from the market section of CNBC, where each document is associated with a response variable.
Methodology: These documents contain preprocessed words/terms of day-to-day reportage on cryptocurrency (Bitcoin). The corresponding response variables are the daily opening and closing price of Bitcoin prices. The Supervised Latent Dirichlet Allocation(sLDA), a statistical model of labeled documents, was used to analyze the textual data alongside their corresponding response variables, since our study aims to predict the response variable for unlabeled new documents.
Results: Hidden Topics with their unique terms from the preprocessed articles were exposed through a Natural language processor. Mean absolute error (MAE), Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and Root mean square error (RMSE) graphs were constructed for the sLDA models with ‘k = 3,10,20,30,50,75,100 and 200 Topics’ values where the model with the best evaluation metric, was selected for prediction purpose.
Conclusion: It was discovered that the sLDA model with k = 20. A posterior covariance matrix which shows the proportion of terms from the documents, making up a Topic. Coefficient values were generated in other to graphically visualize how important the discovered topics are and how they affect the market trend. Finally, the prediction of new labels (numeric-decoded closing prices) for the unlabeled documents was done and comparisons were made; the predicted labels follow a similar pattern to that of the time series closing price trend.

Keywords

Bitcoin

CNBC’s market section website

LDA

prediction

sLDA

Topic modelling

Subjects

business & economics

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